Prediction:

We will see a noticeable, steadily improving trend in the U.S. economy by August 15, 2009.

I first made this prediction on an IMDb discussion board in the middle of February. At the time, I based it on an article in the Wall Street Journal indicating that credit was starting to defrost. In my view, the main cause of the general contraction is that businesses not directly affected by the bursting of the real-estate bubble are nevertheless clinging to their cash, afraid to make any unnecessary outlays. As credit begins to flow again, the economy outside the financial sector will start to return to normal.